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Criterion
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h45-60 min60-120 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tagsno overlap
FailureResilienceRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas