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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min20–45 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group3-8
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
FailureResilienceRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB