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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Intervention Mapping.
Systems Thinking
Intervention Mapping
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-5 Tage15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
2-84-121-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsLogic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation PlanPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ChangeSystems thinkingCapability
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation