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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min15-60 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-93-20
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortAgile
EstimationEffortRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation