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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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