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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min2-4 h5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-83-20
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
EstimationEffortRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Intervention Mapping.
Systems Thinking
Intervention Mapping