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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-83-203-8
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortRisk
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Intervention Mapping.
Systems Thinking
Intervention Mapping