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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-203-12
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAffinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree