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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram