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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-90 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-123-20
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAffinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
EstimationEffortRisk
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree