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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min10-30 min je Item45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-201-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB