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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min20–45 min25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
3-20Small cross-functional group1-5
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test