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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min20–45 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
3-20Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card