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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsOpportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning LogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas