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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-120 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
LeanObservationProcessOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing