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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 min15-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-82-9
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationEffortAgile
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Dual Track Agile with its method-specific working model.
Product Discovery
Dual-Track Agile
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation