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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-202-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test