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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min10-20 min daily45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-2012-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB