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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-52-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of the Lightning Decision Jam working structure.
Facilitation
Decision Jam