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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | DecisionTreeOptions |
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