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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-120 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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