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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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