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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |
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