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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |
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