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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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