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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 45-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions |
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