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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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