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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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