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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |
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