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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | SensemakingDecisionRationale |
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