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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics |
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