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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |
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