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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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