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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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