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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskRoot causeSafety | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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