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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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