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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
