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| Criterion | ![]() Decision Making Delphi Method | ![]() Decision Making Decision Tree | ![]() Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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