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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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