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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When several options collide with several criteria, comparison quickly becomes subjective. A Decision Matrix makes the trade-off visible and brings weighting, criteria, and options into a shared logic. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Matrix, Scoring Rationale, Selected Option | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionCriteriaScoringTradeoffs | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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