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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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