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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |
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