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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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