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Criterion
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-120 min5-20 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-63-202-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis