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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a branching tree with an outcome at its root, customer opportunities, solution options and small experiment cards.
Product Discovery
Opportunity Solution Tree
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure.
Complexitydifferent
LowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-2 h Setup, laufend
Participantsdifferent
2-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanOpportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas