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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment |
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