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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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