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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Iceberg Model method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Iceberg Model
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring.
Complexitysame
LowLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-10
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanIceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB