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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min30-60 min45-60 min
Participantssame
2-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeQualityOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test