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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.
Complexitydifferent
LowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis